Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that divided the nation and triggered chaos, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Many are for or against the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in academia but hardly any politicians or activists are willing to participate even with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author supports unification or the existing arrangement. They composes two essays that aim for neutrality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and societal data, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass national emblems, duties, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated the writer. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the notion that there could be good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they support unity but refuse increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent official who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid arguments, he said. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will ultimately be defeated but both parties has got important lessons to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, said the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
