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Typically, the NFL's Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a simple script. It often serves as a form of mea culpa. Our apologies we underestimated your franchise in our pre-campaign projections.

On paper, it's a direct trajectory: the skipper who oversaw the biggest resurgence wins the award. In reality, it fuels an yearly argument about expectations and whether we're actually rewarding excellent leadership or simply the biggest upset.

But the latest competition is fundamentally different. The pool of contenders is unusually strong. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The NFL has been chaotic, with reigning conference champions fading and recent also-rans ascending collectively. In an ordinary season, a coach guiding the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the stone-cold favorite. But in this turbulent and fun season, he's up against several other exceptional candidates.

This is how the ideal vote could look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year voters adore QBs. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. If you transform a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson not only corrected Caleb Williams; he's freed him. In the right ecosystem, the QB has been afforded the chance to demonstrate his special ability. From Week 9, the Chicago offense rank number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a brief surge – it's sustained excellence. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly confident, far less reckless, and has eagerly submitted to the scheme instead of going rogue. It is an offense designed entirely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball run game, a consistent dose of play-action passes and a imaginative aerial game that creates wide receiver targets consistently. Williams has capitalized. And when clear throws haven't been there, he's been capable to create big plays out of nothing.

The coach arrived to Chicago with a clear offensive vision. Almost each decision – rebuilding the trenches, featuring the tight ends, transforming Williams into a rhythm passer – has worked. This is uncommon for a rookie skipper. And it's rarer yet for a coach who walked into the organization with the level of expectations Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after name on the head coaching market. However when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme dork but the kind of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

During a typical year, Johnson would be the overwhelming favorite. But this isn't a typical season!

The area where Johnson's candidacy comes slightly into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense presently sit 25th in defensive success rate. They are relying on takeaways, and takeaways are famously unreliable. Defensive minds can emphasise creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is sustainable. He's ranked lower because luck is doing an outsized share of the defense's heavy lifting. With a couple breaks of the ball, the Bears would be two victories behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is in place for long-term success. But he comes up just short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

Coen is in a comparable spot to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time head coach who has orchestrated a dramatic turnaround. During the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete overall ball of his professional life. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defense that now ranks number five in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has nailed the intangibles aspects, which was not a guarantee following his early press conference appearances and some of his offseason moves.

The coach walked into Jacksonville with an exceptionally raw staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed their staff with the ideal staff blend of new ideas and veteran savvy, he bet on first-timers. Starting with the head coach himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That type of setup is exciting on paper, but often fails in practice – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a new job in real-time. But he has managed to bring everyone and all elements into sync.

Following an initial strong start, there was a possibility that the season would go off the rails. A mid-year setback caused the team wobbling once more. That's typically when coaches panic and change too much. Coen did not. Instead, he simplified things. The offense stopped pursuing home-run answers and started seeking consistent ones. The coach recentered the offense around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more.

The outcomes are evident. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's number three playoff seed. Coen receives the slightest knock in the standings because he took over a talented roster, but he has proven he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Every Strong of the Year argument has a hinge decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback choice.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a different signal-caller and partnering him with an new play-caller could have ended the campaign in October. Rather, it shaped it. Through the mid point of the season, the new QB was an MVP front-runner. He has fallen away after that time, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, placing him just one spot ahead of peers.

Still